Blogging community of computational and mathematical oncologists
July 27, 2019 2 Comments
A few weeks ago, David Basanta reached out to me (and many other members of the mathematical oncology community) about building a community blog together. This week, to coincide with the Society for Mathematical Biology meeting in Montreal, we launched the blog. In keeping with the community focus, we have an editorial board of 8 people that includes (in addition to David and me): Christina Curtis, Elana Fertig, Stacey Finley, Jakob Nikolas Kather, Jacob G. Scott, and Jeffrey West. The theme is computational and mathematical oncology, but we welcome contributions from all nearby disciplines.
The behind the scenes discussion building up to this launch was one of the motivators for my post on twitter vs blogs and science advertising versus discussion. And as you might expect, dear reader, it was important to me that this new community blog wouldn’t be just about science outreach and advertising of completed work. For me — and I think many of the editors — it is important that the blog is a place for science engagement and for developing new ideas in the open. A way to peel back the covers that hide how science is done and break the silos that inhibit a collaborative and cooperative atmosphere. A way to not only speak at the public or other scientists, but also an opportunity to listen.
For me, the blog is a challenge to the community. A challenge to engage in more flexible, interactive, and inclusive development of new ideas than is possible with traditional journals. While also allowing for a deeper, more long-form and structured discussion than is possible with twitter. If you’ve ever written a detailed research email, long discussion on Slack, or been part of an exciting journal club, lab meeting, or seminar, you know the amount of useful discussion that is foundational to science but that seldom appears in public. My hope is that we can make these discussions more public and more beneficial to the whole community.
Before pushing for the project, David made sure that he knew the lay of the land. He assembled a list of the existing blogs on computational and mathematical oncology. In our welcome post, I made sure to highlight a few of the examples of our community members developing new ideas, sharing tools and techniques, and pushing beyond outreach and advertising. But since we wanted the welcome post to be short, there was not the opportunity for a more thorough survey of our community.
In this post, I want to provide a more detailed — although never complete nor exhaustive — snapshot of the blogging community of computational and mathematical oncologists. At least the part of it that I am familiar with. If I missed you then please let me know. This is exactly what the comments on this post are for: expanding our community.
Allegory of the replication crisis in algorithmic trading
August 17, 2019 by Artem Kaznatcheev 1 Comment
One of the most interesting ongoing problems in metascience right now is the replication crisis. This a methodological crisis around the difficulty of reproducing or replicating past studies. If we cannot repeat or recreate the results of a previous study then it casts doubt on if those ‘results’ were real or just artefacts of flawed methodology, bad statistics, or publication bias. If we view science as a collection of facts or empirical truths than this can shake the foundations of science.
The replication crisis is most often associated with psychology — a field that seems to be having the most active and self-reflective engagement with the replication crisis — but also extends to fields like general medicine (Ioannidis, 2005a,b; 2016), oncology (Begley & Ellis, 2012), marketing (Hunter, 2001), economics (Camerer et al., 2016), and even hydrology (Stagge et al., 2019).
When I last wrote about the replication crisis back in 2013, I asked what science can learn from the humanities: specifically, what we can learn from memorable characters and fanfiction. From this perspective, a lack of replication was not the disease but the symptom of the deeper malady of poor theoretical foundations. When theories, models, and experiments are individual isolated silos, there is no inherent drive to replicate because the knowledge is not directly cumulative. Instead of forcing replication, we should aim to unify theories, make them more precise and cumulative and thus create a setting where there is an inherent drive to replicate.
More importantly, in a field with well-developed theory and large deductive components, a study can advance the field even if its observed outcome turns out to be incorrect. With a cumulative theory, it is more likely that we will develop new techniques or motivate new challenges or extensions to theory independent of the details of the empirical results. In a field where theory and experiment go hand-in-hand, a single paper can advance both our empirical grounding and our theoretical techniques.
I am certainly not the only one to suggest that a lack of unifying, common, and cumulative theory as the cause for the replication crisis. But how do we act on this?
Can we just start mathematical modelling? In the case of the replicator crisis in cancer research, will mathematical oncology help?
Not necessarily. But I’ll come back to this at the end. First, a story.
Let us look at a case study: algorithmic trading in quantitative finance. This is a field that is heavy in math and light on controlled experiments. In some ways, its methodology is the opposite of the dominant methodology of psychology or cancer research. It is all about doing math and writing code to predict the markets.
Yesterday on /r/algotrading, /u/chiefkul reported on his effort to reproduce 130+ papers about “predicting the stock market”. He coded them from scratch and found that “every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit [or] subsample[d] …OR… had a smidge of Alpha [that disappears with transaction costs]”.
There’s a replication crisis for you. Even the most pessimistic readings of the literature in psychology or medicine produce significantly higher levels of successful replication. So let’s dig in a bit.
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Filed under Commentary Tagged with current events, ethics and morality, finance, metamodeling, philosophy of science